THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC RECESSIONS ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS IN NIGERIA(EVIDENCE FROM PRESIDENT TINUBU ADMINISTRATION)

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

The business cycle impacts every economy. The business cycle pertains to the fluctuation of gross domestic product (GDP) levels, encompassing both upward and downward movements. Economic fluctuations encompass the periods of both expansion and contraction in the amount of economic activities relative to its long-term growth trend. Recession refers to a general decrease in the level of economic activities (business fluctuations) around its long – term growth pattern for two consecutive quarters. According to Odinta (2017), a recession is a period of economic decline within the business cycle, characterised by a widespread decrease in economic activity lasting for at least two consecutive quarters (6 months or more). The deteriorating macroeconomic indicators indicate that without a proper policy response, the economy may descend deeper into a state of depression. According to Tejuosho et al. (2018), there is a decrease in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment and consumption spending, savings rate, imports and exports, capacity utilisation, household income, trade, capital flows, business profits, and inflation. At the same time, there is an increase in indebtedness, illiquidity, bankruptcies, and the unemployment rates.

The occurrence of a recession can be instigated by a financial crisis, credit crunch, or by shocks in both the demand and supply sides of the economy (Kamar, 2022). Recession, if not controlled, can have a disastrous effect on the economy as most macroeconomic indices remain negative for a long time, usually more than two years. Recession came into limelight in the year 2008 to 2009 when the annual growth rate of Nigeria dropped from over 9% to 6.7% leaving macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate, oil price, exchange rate, unemployment, and underemployment, inflation, external reserve, etc. relatively unstable (Tejuosho et al., 2018). The recession has resulted in a decline in the standard of living and quality of life, along with increased unemployment, decreased incomes, lower economic activity, and an increase in the poverty rate. These factors have had a severe impact on sustainable development.

These economic downturns frequently worsen pre-existing socioeconomic inequalities, having a greater impact on vulnerable groups such as low-income households, women, children, and marginalised communities. Children, youth, and families are being significantly affected by the worsening economic crisis (Babajide et al., 2022). The repercussions of this are spreading via various contexts where children and teens are present. Stressors such as unemployment, home repossession, or financial loss within the nuclear family can cause strain on parental relationships and the family unit as a whole (Chelsea, 2022). Low-income families may experience a more pronounced impact, since they may struggle to meet essential requirements such as food security, healthcare, and shelter (Okonkwo et al., 2023). Elevated poverty rates are linked to heightened rates of familial discord, negligence and mistreatment of children, and violence within intimate relationships. At a more general level, the deteriorating economy can have a negative effect on the funding available for public schools and community health centres. These institutions are facing financial limitations precisely at a time when their services are most crucial for the well-being of our nation's children, youth, and families (Utibe, 2023).

 Nigeria, the country with the highest population in Africa, possesses a varied economy that is mainly dependent on the exportation of oil. Nigeria, despite its abundance of natural resources, confronts substantial obstacles such as elevated poverty rates, unemployment, and insufficient infrastructure. Economic downturns worsen these difficulties, resulting in heightened adversity for the most susceptible groups in the country. Comprehending the social consequences of recessions is essential for devising strategies that might alleviate negative effects and foster inclusive economic expansion. Therefore, the necessity for doing this investigation arises.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Economic recessions have a significant impact on the socioeconomic structure of a country, typically worsening existing inequities and having a greater impact on disadvantaged communities. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the particular difficulties encountered by these groups in times of economic decline is essential for formulating focused strategies that can alleviate negative consequences and foster an all-encompassing restoration.

Research has indicated that children and adolescents are especially susceptible to the negative effects of economic downturns due to their involvement in important developmental stages, such as completing secondary education (Kazeem et al., 2020). During this phase, teenagers may be compelled to delay their aspirations for further education and instead pursue increasingly limited employment opportunities in order to financially support their family. These changes can significantly and enduringly impact the mental well-being of children and adolescents in our country, frequently leading to issues like as anxiety, reduced self-confidence, and other emotional and behavioural challenges (Komolafe et al., 2023).

Moreover, according to Timi (2019), economic recession has a widespread impact on all sectors of the economy, including the agricultural sector, which plays a crucial role in ensuring food security. This, in conjunction with the Naira's low purchasing power, can result in heightened food insecurity and unfavorable nutritional consequences, especially for low-income households and rural populations. In addition, economic recessions can restrict individuals' ability to obtain necessary services, such as healthcare and education. This study aims to examine the socioeconomic effects of an economic recession on vulnerable groups in Nigeria under President Tinubu's administration.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically assess the socioeconomic impacts of economic recessions on vulnerable populations in Nigeria. (evidence from President Tinubu administration). Specific objectives of this study are to:

To assess the extent economic recession has affected the income level of vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

To assess the impacts of recession on poverty level of the vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

To examine the effects of economic recession on job security of the vulnerable populations in Nigeria

To examine how economic recessions have affected food security  of the vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the extent economic recession has affected the income level of vulnerable populations in Nigeria?

What is the impacts of recession on poverty level of the vulnerable populations in Nigeria?

What is the effects of economic recession on job security of the vulnerable populations in Nigeria?

How has economic recessions affected food security  of the vulnerable populations in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: Economic recessions has no significant negative impact on the vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

Ha: Economic recessions has no significant negative impact on the vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

1.6 Significance of the study

This study is important because it illuminates the particular difficulties experienced by susceptible populations during economic downturns. The study examines the period under President Tinubu's administration to provide valuable and up-to-date insights on how well current policies are working to reduce the negative impacts of economic downturns. The results will provide guidance to policymakers, stakeholders, and development organisations for approaches to assist at-risk communities and encourage an all-encompassing economic revival.

Vulnerable populations, including low-income households, informal labourers, and marginalised groups, are disproportionately impacted by economic recessions. Gaining insight into the effects on these populations can illuminate particular susceptibilities and guide focused solutions. Recessions frequently intensify poverty and broaden economic disparities. Examining these consequences can yield knowledge regarding how economic downturns lead to socioeconomic inequalities and identify approaches to alleviate these affects.

Furthermore, examining the response of vulnerable groups to economic recessions can shed light on the variables that contribute to their resilience and the tactics they employ at the community level to adapt and recover. Recessions can impact the ability of vulnerable people to obtain healthcare, nourishment, and overall well-being. Examining these effects can uncover crucial connections between economic circumstances and public health results.

Moreover, the study's findings can provide valuable insights for developing evidence-based policies that aim to safeguard disadvantaged people during periods of economic decline. This encompasses policies pertaining to social protection, the creation of employment opportunities, and the promotion of economic empowerment.

Furthermore, future scholars will utilise it as a thorough examination of the current body of literature. Consequently, other students with an interest in studying this subject will have the opportunity to utilise this work as reliable knowledge that can be comprehensively evaluated. 

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically assess the socioeconomic impacts of economic recessions on vulnerable populations in Nigeria. (evidence from President Tinubu administration). The study will be conducted in Nnewi, Anambra state. Focus will be on market traders with children, and the elderly in the area.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As is common in all human endeavours, the researchers faced minor limitations when conducting the study. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available for the socioeconomic impacts of economic recessions on vulnerable populations in Nigeria. (evidence from President Tinubu administration). Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate materials, books, or information and to gather data. 

Additionally, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographical scope, focusing just on Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for further research. 

Additionally, the researcher's limitations were primarily due to financial constraints, as they are a student and do not have a source of income to sustain themselves. It was challenging to afford transportation expenses to and from the study location due to the high cost of transportation, which is influenced by inflation in Nigeria today.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Economic recession: Economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.

Vulnerable population: Vulnerable populations are individuals who are at greater risk of poor physical and social health status. They are considered vulnerable because of disparities in physical, economic, and social health status when compared with the dominant population.

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